Updates every trading dayData through Oct 30, 2026
We give you the facts, the moves, and, of course, The facts, the moves, and what we make of it all.
The economy today: overheating
TTM (trailing 12 months): GDP growth 2.8%, PCE inflation 3.8%. Red dot: today, Nov 1.
The past year by month. Corners: share of months since 1961
Today
TodayTTM GDP growth 2.8%, TTM PCE inflation 3.8%Overheating
Move across the chart, or tap it, to read any dot. Click to keep it selected.
How to read the map
Four kinds of economic weather. Green is the sweet spot, red is running too hot, blue is running cold, and plum is the worst of both: weak growth with high inflation. The number in each corner is the share of all months since 1961 spent there. The horizontal line is the Fed's 2% goal, which is set on PCE inflation. Press play to watch the economy fly through them, month by month, with the past year always trailing behind it.
Eleven of the past 12 months were overheating and one was stagflation. The last sweet spot month was February 2021.
What's official. Every inflation dot is the official PCE figure, except today's and October's, which are the Cleveland Fed's estimates until the official figures are out. Every growth dot is an estimate, including today's, because official GDP comes only once a quarter.
Updates every trading day. TTM: trailing twelve months. Every dot is one month, and the last dot is live. Growth: Atlanta Fed GDPNow at each month's end from August 2011, its first public estimate, and Brave-Butters-Kelley monthly GDP before that. GDPNow gives a quarter's pace, which we turn into growth over the past year using the three quarters before it, so today's 3.2% pace reads as 2.8%. Inflation: actual PCE prices, with today's from the Cleveland Fed's estimate. Corner numbers cover all 791 months since January 1961 and are rounded.
The S&P 500 Through the Weather
One dot for every month since 1961. The color shows where the economy sat on the map that month.
S&P 500 at each month's end, colored by that month's zone on the map
Sweet spotOverheatingSlowdownStagflationToday
January 1961 to today
Drag either end of the bar to pick any period, or slide the whole bar. Updates every trading day. Log scale: equal distances are equal percentage moves. Price only, without dividends. Colors use the map's data as it stands today, not what was known at the time. Past moves don't predict future ones.
Quarterly Growth
The Atlanta Fed's model re-estimates GDP as new data arrive. Each quarter hands off to the next, and each leg ends where the real number landed. The band shows how far the model has usually been from the truth at that stage: it tightens as the report nears, then opens wide again when the next quarter starts.
Today's estimate3.2%Q4 at an annual rate. First estimate, Oct 29
Usual range now1.9% to 4.6%Margin of 1.3 pts at this stage
By the day before±0.8 ptsHow far it tightens by the report
GDP growth: the daily estimate and its usual margin of error
Atlanta Fed model's running estimateUsual margin of errorActual, first government reportToday
Updates every trading day. Source: Atlanta Fed GDPNow, a model estimate, not an official forecast. Band: our calculation from 42 quarters of its archive, leaving out 2020 and 2021. By the last estimate, the actual landed inside the band in 4 of these 5 quarters. Q4 2025 fell outside.
CPI Inflation
The Cleveland Fed's model does the same for CPI inflation over the trailing 12 months, one column per month, each ending where the official CPI landed.
Today's estimate3.74%October, year over year. A model estimate, not an official figure
CPI, September3.74%Year over year, the latest official figure
On the month+0.65%September
October estimate+0.24%On the month. No official 12-month figure for October. Out Nov. 10.
CPI, year over year: the daily estimate and its usual margin of error
Cleveland Fed model's running estimateUsual margin of errorActualToday
Updates every trading day. Source: Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting. Band: our calculation from 132 months of its data, leaving out 2020, 2021 and the months around the shutdown. By the last estimate, the actual landed inside the band in 7 of these 10 months. Starts in December because October 2025 CPI was never published. October 2026 has no Actual dot: the BLS will not publish a 12-month change for it, so that column shows only the model's estimate, which rests on its own stand-in for October 2025. Year over year returns with November's report on Dec. 10.
What the market expects
Before the next big report, here is the number the market is pricing in, by First Signal's calculation.
November CPI, Dec. 10About 3.9%Year over year, up from 3.7% in September
Q4 GDP, Jan. 28About 3.1%Annual rate. Trading is thin, so this one is a rough read.
First Signal's calculations based on market signals, as of Nov 1, 2026. An estimate, not a promise. Estimates on this page are model readings and First Signal's calculations, not official figures.
This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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