No. 005Monday, November 2, 2026Mon, Nov 2, 2026Close edition
We give you the facts, the moves, and, of course, The facts, the moves, and what we make of it all.
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S&P 5007,541.40−0.51%
Nasdaq25,164.31−1.07%
Dow51,983.98+0.41%
Russell 20002,805.88−0.21%
VIX21.15+8.9%
10-yr4.92%−1.4 bp
WTI$96.46−7.4%
Dollar101.78−0.09%
Gold$3,969.60+1.8%
The Close
Today in one paragraph
U.S. crude settled down 7.4% at $96.46 after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Trump would prefer to end the Iran war "peacefully." The S&P 500 was up as much as 1.1% and closed down 0.5%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.1%, as money left AI's suppliers again. Lumentum fell 18.6% on the day it agreed to be bought by Marvell, which fell 12.7%, and Oracle fell 8.8% after filing to raise $20 billion. The Dow rose 0.4%, led by Sherwin-Williams and Home Depot, and the equal-weight S&P 500 fund rose 0.8%. IDEXX jumped 21.8% on its results. Apple reported after the bell. Our read: cheaper oil helped almost everything except the trade that most needed help. The rotation out of AI isn't about the war.
Paint, home improvement and airlines rose; the AI suppliers sank. Monday's moves, from Friday's close, from our price books and the day's closes; the equal-weight S&P 500 is the RSP fund.
What Happened Today?
The most important stories, through our eyes
Lumentum trades 11% under Marvell's offer
The laser maker agrees to an all-stock sale to Marvell, then falls 18.6% to sit well below what the deal pays.
Lumentum LITE $684.40 −18.6%Marvell MRVL $171.41 −12.7%Ciena CIEN $284.34 −11.3%
What the market heard
Lumentum makes the lasers that carry data as light between the servers in AI data centers. Before the open, it and Marvell, the chip designer, announced the deal: each Lumentum share becomes 4.5 Marvell shares, closing in the first half of 2028. The release valued Lumentum at $115 billion including debt, on prices from Oct. 28, before Marvell's stock started falling.
It has kept falling. Marvell lost another 12.7% on Monday to $171.41, and is down 31.9% in three sessions. At that price, 4.5 Marvell shares are worth $771.35. Lumentum closed at $684.40, 11.3% below that, after trading 4.9% below it at Friday's close. Lumentum is now 39.6% below its October high of $1,133.40. The other optical-network stocks fell with it: Ciena 11.3%, Applied Optoelectronics 9.5%, Coherent 4.9%, on a day the Nasdaq lost 1.1%.
What it might mean
A gap of 11% on a deal that pays in a year and a half is the market saying two things: it doubts the deal closes as written, and it doesn't want to be paid in Marvell stock. Every Lumentum holder now owns a bet on Marvell, like it or not. This morning we said Lumentum's own report on Thursday would matter more than the deal. We'll keep that call, and add one: if the gap is still above 10% after that report, the market is betting the deal gets renegotiated or blocked.
What would kill it
Lumentum closing within 5% of the offer's value before its report on Thursday, or a rival bid.
Lumentum vs. the value of 4.5 Marvell shares, the past three months
Peace talk takes $7.66 off oil
U.S. crude settles down 7.4% at $96.46 on talk of a deal with Iran, and the drillers fall while the airlines rise.
Over the weekend, Rubio told reporters that Trump "hasn't made a decision" on new strikes against Iran and that "we would prefer to do it peacefully," CNBC reported. Trump himself said on Sunday: "Either they'll make a deal, or we'll just end it." Iran's foreign minister said a deal was possible if Washington "demonstrates goodwill," Iranian state media reported, via CNBC.
U.S. crude settled at $96.46, down $7.66, and Brent fell 7.6% to $104.77, according to CNBC's market report. The producers paid: Devon fell 6.7%, Diamondback 5.8%, Occidental 5.1%, ConocoPhillips 4.7%, Exxon 4.0% and Chevron 3.3%. The fuel buyers gained: United rose 4.8%, Royal Caribbean 4.5% and Delta 4.1%. The twist: on Sunday night, Goldman Sachs raised its oil forecasts for December and 2027, saying many traders expect "a lasting diplomatic breakthrough will be difficult." The EIA's daily price table has the official spot history.
What it might mean
The market sold the war premium on words, while both sides are still reported to be preparing for strikes after Tuesday's election. That makes this a bet on a deal nobody has signed. Our guess: the drillers fell less than oil did because their investors don't believe it either, and if the talks stall after the midterms, oil gets most of today's drop back within two weeks.
What would kill it
A signed framework between Washington and Tehran, or the U.S. lifting its blockade.
Monday: the oil producers vs. the fuel buyers
Also moving
OracleORCL−8.8%. The database and cloud company filed to sell $10 billion of new stock and $10 billion of bonds to fund its AI build-out. "This seems to be exactly what they previewed," said Baird's Rob Oliver, who wasn't sure why the market was "freaking about it," CNBC reported.
IntelINTC−8.8%. The chipmaker fell again after losing 45% in October, its steepest monthly drop on record, and still has no big outside customer for its newest factories, CNBC reported.
RivianRIVN+8.5%. The electric-truck maker was upgraded to buy at UBS, which called the sell-off a buying opportunity ahead of its R2 SUV, CNBC reported.
MicronMU−5.8%. The memory makers rose before the open and fell for a second day by the close, Western Digital 7.5% and Sandisk 6.6%, CNBC reported.
CoinbaseCOIN−4.0%. The crypto exchange was downgraded by Morgan Stanley, days after the record Binance hack, CNBC reported.
What it is.The login company: software that checks who you are before you get into your employer's apps. Founded in San Francisco in 2009.
What we know. No news or 8-K from the company since September. The whole security-software group fell: Rapid7 10.3%, SentinelOne 7.9%, Qualys 7.4%, Fortinet 7.3% and Zscaler 5.9%. Even CrowdStrike, upgraded to buy at Deutsche Bank this morning, fell 3.4%.
Today vs. other security software
Our guess: software sold as a group. When investors cut what they own in AI and software, they sell the names that have run the most and trade the most, whatever the news, and Okta was near the front of the line.
What it is.A maker of jet-engine parts and the fasteners that hold planes together, based in Pittsburgh; it is what's left of the old Alcoa, renamed twice.
What we know. No filing since its quarterly report on Oct. 29. The other aircraft suppliers rose too: TransDigm 5.8%, ATI 5.3%, Heico 5.1% and GE Aerospace 4.6%, on the day oil fell 7.4%.
Today vs. other aircraft suppliers
Our guess: cheaper fuel, more flights. When jet fuel gets cheaper, airlines fly more and keep their engines running longer, and the companies that sell the replacement parts are where investors put that bet.
The Earnings Desk
Results, briefly
IDEXXIDXX+21.8%. The veterinary-testing company, whose analyzers sit in animal clinics, reported revenue up 10% to $1.21 billion and raised its full-year forecasts for revenue and earnings, IDEXX's results release shows. It also lowered its operating-margin outlook, CNBC reported. Investors paid for the pets and forgave the margin.
NapcoNSSC−18.4%. The alarm and door-lock maker reported its quarter on Monday: revenue rose 1.7% to $50.0 million and its subscription revenue 11.5% to $26.1 million, but equipment sales fell 7.3%, which the company put down to "two locking distributors reducing their purchases." The subscriptions are the good business, and the market sold the part that comes in boxes.
We flagged this This morning we listed Napco as a big move with no explanation and guessed "nerves before its next quarterly report." Napco released its quarterly results on Monday, with a call at 11 a.m. Eastern, and the fall in equipment sales may explain the drop.
"Last report" is the stock's move the session after its previous results.
The Nightcap
One before you call it a day
The paint stock that led the Dow
Two years ago this week, the Dow Jones industrial average swapped out two old names. Nvidia took Intel's seat, and Sherwin-Williams, the paint company whose logo pours a can of paint over the globe under the words "Cover the Earth," took the seat of Dow Inc., the chemical maker. On Monday the paint maker rose 5.9% and led the Dow higher, CNBC reported. Nvidia fell 1.3%. Intel, the company it replaced, fell another 8.8%. Paint is made from oil-based chemicals, and oil fell 7.4%. The index committee picked the future and the past on the same day. On Monday, the past was winning.
Connecting the Dots
Where we are, and where the puck goes next
Oil gave stocks a gift, and they spent it everywhere but AI.
This morning we said the war premium was leaking out of oil. By the close it had poured out: crude fell $7.66. And the S&P 500 still finished lower, because the money went to paint, planes and home improvement, not to chips. That moved us further toward the rotation.
Here is the test the market passed. A 7% drop in oil is the best news the AI giants could get: cheaper energy, lower inflation, less pressure on the Fed. The Nasdaq was up in the morning and fell 1.1% anyway. Marvell, Lumentum, Oracle and Intel all fell more than 8%. Meanwhile the equal-weight S&P 500, in which every company counts the same, rose 0.8%. When good news can't lift a trade, the trade is over for now.
The money question got louder too. Oracle is raising $20 billion with new shares and bonds, and Lumentum's holders are being paid in a stock that has lost almost a third in three sessions. The bill for the AI build-out is now landing on the people who finance it. The Fed side hasn't changed: the 2-year Treasury yield, the bond market's bet on the Fed, held at 4.60% even as oil fell, and Friday's jobs report is still the big date.
The signals
Bars are our conviction: the chance it happens by the date shown.
Strong
The average stock keeps beating the giants
Through Nov. 30 · unchanged
The equal-weight S&P 500 rose 0.8% on a day the ordinary one fell 0.5%, and the gap opened on the best possible day for the giants: oil down 7%. Still four bars, because one good day doesn't add a reason.
Watch: the equal-weight S&P 500 against the ordinary one over November.
Clear
The Fed raises rates on Dec. 9
Through Dec. 9 · unchanged
Oil's drop takes away part of the Fed's reason, but the 2-year Treasury yield, the bond market's bet on the Fed, held at 4.60%. Factories are hot; construction spending just had its biggest drop since April 2020. Friday's jobs report decides it.
Watch: Friday's jobs report and oil.
Clear
The AI build-out starts paying with debt and shares
Through Dec. 31 · up from 2 this morning
Up a bar: the market now prices it. Oracle fell 8.8% on its $20 billion raise, and Lumentum trades 11% under an offer paid in Marvell stock, which has lost almost a third in three sessions.
Watch: how Oracle's new bonds price this week.
Where the puck goes next: our odds through November
The rotation keeps going50%
Up from 45% this morning
Oil fell 7% and the money still went to paint, planes and home improvement, not chips. Winners: small caps, transports, the equal-weight S&P 500. Losers: oil producers and the AI giants that now have to raise money.
The tell: the equal-weight S&P 500 beats the ordinary one over November.
Everything gets marked down30%
Unchanged at 30% from this morning
Cheaper oil helps, but the 2-year yield didn't fall. A failed deal with Iran or a hot jobs report puts it back in play. Winners: the dollar, short-term Treasuries. Losers: small caps first, then everything priced on distant profits.
The tell: the Russell 2000 closing under 2,716, more than 5% below Thursday's close.
AI wins back the crowd20%
Down from 25% this morning
The giants got their best news of the month, cheaper energy, and fell anyway. It would take Nvidia's report on Nov. 17 to turn this. Winners: chips, the hyperscalers. Losers: the defensive names that led last week.
The tell: Alphabet closing above $324.89 by Nov. 30.
What would make us tear this up:a weak jobs report on Friday that takes the December hike off the table while oil goes back above $104. That mix, a slowing economy with expensive energy, fits none of our three. We'll keep score at the end of November.
Tomorrow Election Day. September's job openings at 10 a.m. Eastern, then AMD and Arista Networks after the bell. See you at the open.
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