No. 006Tuesday, November 3, 2026Tue, Nov 3, 2026Close edition
We give you the facts, the moves, and, of course, The facts, the moves, and what we make of it all.
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S&P 5007,568.92+0.36%
Nasdaq25,372.01+0.83%
Dow51,786.72−0.38%
Russell 20002,812.45+0.23%
VIX20.83−1.5%
10-yr4.97%+7.2 bp
WTI$96.09−0.4%
Dollar101.86+0.11%
Gold$3,940.40−0.7%
The Close
Today in one paragraph
The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,568.92 on Election Day, breaking a three-day losing run, and the Nasdaq gained 0.8% as the chipmakers bounced: Nvidia rose 2.3% and AMD 3.7% ahead of its report. The Dow fell 0.4%, weighed down by Apple, and the equal-weight S&P 500 fund fell 0.3%. Job openings were 7.52 million in September, well above what economists expected, CNBC reported, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.97% by 4:33 p.m. Eastern. Meta was seeking $20 billion to $25 billion in a bond sale, CNBC reported. After the bell, AMD was up 9.0% and Arista Networks 8.8% by 4:37 p.m. Eastern, on their results. Our read: the giants are back for now, and the biggest of them are paying for the build-out with borrowed money.
AI's suppliers up, the software and information sellers down
The companies that build AI's networks and power rose on their results; the ones that sell software and information fell. Tuesday's moves from Monday's close, from our price books and the day's index closes.
What Happened Today?
The most important stories, through our eyes
PTC bets $500 million on itself
The rare-disease drugmaker authorizes a buyback worth about 11% of the company, and its stock jumps 11.9%.
PTC Therapeutics, of Warren Township, New Jersey, makes medicines for rare diseases, among them Kebilidi, a gene therapy for a rare disorder of the nervous system. Novartis committed $1 billion upfront to license its experimental Huntington's disease drug, Wikipedia notes. Before the open, PTC said its board had authorized buybacks of up to $500 million of its stock. "The share repurchase program reflects our deep conviction in the strength of the Company," said Chief Executive Matthew Klein, adding that its shares "provide a compelling opportunity."
PTC was worth about $4.5 billion at Monday's close, so the program could retire about 11% of the company. The 8-K sets no timetable and no minimum: PTC may buy "from time to time at management's discretion," and will report what it bought in its periodic reports. The stock rose 11.9% to $68.12, its biggest gain since May 8. It had fallen 33.0% from its 52-week closing high of $89.55 on July 9 to $59.97 on Oct. 30. The same morning, Fiserv said it expects to buy back $500 million of its stock this quarter; for the payments company, that is about 2% of its value.
What it might mean
A company that authorizes buying back up to a tenth of itself is saying the market has its price wrong. But an authorization is a permission, not a purchase, and nothing in the release says when PTC will buy or how much. Our guess: the stock keeps most of today's gain only if the next quarterly report shows real buying.
What would kill it
PTC's next quarterly report showing no shares bought under the program, or the stock closing back below $60.88, Monday's close, before that report.
MetaMETA+2.4%. The Facebook parent was seeking $20 billion to $25 billion in a bond sale to pay for AI, after $25 billion in April, days after S&P Global Ratings changed its outlook on Meta to negative, CNBC reported. The stock had fallen in 12 of the 14 sessions before Tuesday.
Bloom EnergyBE+9.0%. The fuel-cell maker was upgraded to overweight at Barclays, which cited higher-than-expected demand, CNBC reported.
CoreWeaveCRWV+7.2%. The AI cloud company rose even as Starwood Capital's Barry Sternlicht said of the smaller AI clouds, "maybe some of them will fail," CNBC reported. It is down 38.5% over the past month.
CoinbaseCOIN+5.5%. The crypto exchange bounced after sliding 15% in the three sessions through Monday, CNBC reported. Binance's chief executive told CNBC the exchange has replenished 98% of the $6.34 billion of assets hit in last week's hack, CNBC reported.
DisneyDIS+0.9%. The entertainment company plans to cut several thousand jobs, and some managers were asked to cut costs by up to 20%, people familiar with the matter told CNBC. Disney reports on Nov. 17.
Big Moves, but No Explanation
Money moves in mysterious ways.
No cards tonight: every big move we followed today came with a story.
The Earnings Desk
Results, briefly
ShopifySHOP−8.7%. The online-store software company grew revenue 32% to $3.74 billion, with a free-cash-flow margin of 22%, its results release shows. But merchandise volume of $119.15 billion and subscription revenue both missed estimates, and it forecast fourth-quarter revenue growth at a "low-thirties" rate, against the 32.1% analysts expected, CNBC reported. Investors were paying for a faster Shopify and got the same speed.
EatonETN+7.0%. The maker of electrical gear for data centers and power grids reported record sales of $8.9 billion, up 28%, with 19% organic growth, and a raised full-year forecast. The money that left AI's chips last week never left AI's wiring.
Adjusted profit of 87 cents a share on $16.58 billion of revenue beat the 73 cents and $15.87 billion expected, and the stock fell anyway, CNBC reported.
"Last report" is the stock's move the session after its previous results.
The Nightcap
One before you call it a day
The box maker's best day in ten years
Graphic Packaging, of Atlanta, designs and makes paperboard and folding cartons for consumer goods, especially drinks and packaged food. On Tuesday it reported adjusted profit of 23 cents a share, down from 58 cents a year earlier, on sales of $2.19 billion, almost exactly last year's $2.19 billion, its release shows. The stock rose 21.2% to $11.31, its best day in at least ten years. Even after that, it is 24.8% below where it stood a year ago. Profit fell by more than half, and the stock had its best day in years. Sometimes the bar is set so low that "about the same as last year" clears it.
Connecting the Dots
Where we are, and where the puck goes next
The giants won the day on borrowed money.
This morning we said AI got a bounce and a bill, and that the bill would last. By the close both had grown. The Nasdaq rose 0.8% while the equal-weight S&P 500 fell 0.3%, a day the giants beat the average stock. Meta, meanwhile, was seeking as much as $25 billion in bonds. That moved us, a little, toward the AI comeback.
After the bell AMD added fuel: revenue up 45%, data-center sales nearly doubled, and the stock up 9.0% in late trading. That is the kind of number that brings a crowd back. But look at who is paying for the build-out. Oracle priced $10 billion of bonds on Monday at coupons of 7% to 8.65%. Meta is back in the bond market after $25 billion in April, days after S&P put a negative outlook on its rating. When the richest companies in the world keep coming back to the bond market, the cost of that money becomes the story.
The Fed side got a little hotter. Job openings came in at 7.52 million, above what economists expected, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.97% by 4:33 p.m. Eastern, and the 2-year, the bond market's bet on the Fed, rose to 4.63% by 4:32 p.m. Two points for a December hike. Friday's jobs report is the third, and the one that counts.
The signals
Bars are our conviction: the chance it happens by the date shown.
Strong
The average stock keeps beating the giants
Through Nov. 30 · unchanged
The giants won Tuesday: the S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the equal-weight S&P 500 fell 0.3%. One day against a month of the opposite doesn't take a bar away, but AMD's jump after hours could make it two.
Watch: the equal-weight S&P 500 against the ordinary one over November.
Clear
The Fed raises rates on Dec. 9
Through Dec. 9 · unchanged
Job openings beat expectations, and the 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.63% by 4:32 p.m. Eastern. We add a bar only if Friday's jobs report is strong too.
Watch: Friday's jobs report and oil.
Strong
The AI build-out starts paying with debt and shares
Through Dec. 31 · unchanged
Meta's bond sale is the next big one we were watching. If it prices wider over Treasuries than its April bonds, this becomes a full signal.
Watch: where Meta's new bonds price against its April ones.
Where the puck goes next: our odds through November
The rotation keeps going45%
Down from 50% this morning
The giants beat the average stock on Tuesday, and AMD's report gives them another push. Winners: small caps, transports, the equal-weight S&P 500. Losers: oil producers and the AI giants that have to borrow.
The tell: the equal-weight S&P 500 beats the ordinary one over November.
Everything gets marked down30%
Unchanged at 30% from this morning
Strong job openings and a 10-year yield near 5% keep it alive. Winners: the dollar, short-term Treasuries. Losers: small caps first, then everything priced on distant profits.
The tell: the Russell 2000 closing under 2,716, more than 5% below Thursday's close.
AI wins back the crowd25%
Up from 20% this morning
AMD's data-center sales nearly doubled, and the stock jumped after hours. It still takes Nvidia's report on Nov. 17 to make this the main story. Winners: chips, the hyperscalers. Losers: the defensive names that led last week.
The tell: Alphabet closing above $324.89 by Nov. 30.
What would make us tear this up:a weak jobs report on Friday that takes the December hike off the table while oil goes back above $104. That mix, a slowing economy with expensive energy, fits none of our three. We'll keep score at the end of November.
Tomorrow The election results, ISM's survey of the service economy at 10 a.m. Eastern, Uber before the bell, then Qualcomm and Arm after it. See you at the open.
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