No. 008Thursday, November 5, 2026Thu, Nov 5, 2026Open edition
We give you the facts, the moves, and, of course, The facts, the moves, and what we make of it all.
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S&P 5007,509.45−2.33%
Nasdaq24,752.43−3.82%
Dow52,661.53−1.30%
Russell 20002,794.74−2.18%
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Prices as of 10:30 am ET; oil and gold as of 10:21 am ET. Still trading.
The Open
The morning in one paragraph
The post-election sell-off in AI stocks deepened in the chipmakers on Thursday. By 10:30 am Eastern, AMD was down 13.8%, Micron 12.2% and Nvidia 6.5%, and the Nasdaq had given up 3.8%, more than Wednesday's gain. The S&P 500 was down 2.3% and the Dow 1.3%, while the companies that sell power, medicine and groceries rose: Duke Energy 2.0%, Johnson & Johnson 1.8% and Walmart 1.6%. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, jumped to 23.47. Unemployment claims fell to 189,000 last week, near their lowest since 1969, CNBC reported, and by 10:21 U.S. crude was back above $90. Our read: Wednesday was the verdict; Thursday is the bill. The market is moving its money out of AI's supply chain, and it isn't waiting to see the new rules.
A utility, an oil company, a drugmaker and household names rose; the chip and AI-cloud stocks fell 6.5% to 16.4%. Moves from Wednesday's close to 10:30 am ET Thursday, from our price books and the morning's prices.
What Is Happening Today?
The most important stories, through our eyes
The post-election sell-off deepens in the chipmakers
AMD falls 13.8% and Micron 12.2% as investors sell AI's supply chain for a second day after the election.
AMD AMD $421.37 −13.8%Micron MU $698.55 −12.2%Nvidia NVDA $187.08 −6.5%
What the market heard
On Wednesday the market sold the companies that build and power data centers. On Thursday it sold the chips that go in them harder. AMD, which makes processors and AI accelerators, was down 13.8% by 10:30, the memory maker Micron 12.2%, Marvell 11.1%, Broadcom 6.7% and Nvidia 6.5%. The AI cloud companies fell too: Nebius 16.4%, IREN 14.9% and CoreWeave 11.6%. Qualcomm's weak forecast after the bell on Wednesday added to it; its peers "also declined Thursday, continuing a post-election selloff on fears of a data center slowdown," CNBC reported.
Goldman Sachs traders put the case plainly: "Legislative restrictions are difficult to quantify ... but building will become more expensive, complicated and slower," CNBC reported. The iShares Semiconductor fund had fallen more than 23% over the past month through Wednesday, and BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky noted it had closed below its 200-day average for four sessions running. Over that month the Dow was up 4.1% and the equal-weight S&P 500 more than 5%, CNBC reported before Thursday's open. Elon Musk's companies fell too: Tesla 9.6% and SpaceX 9.0%. On Thursday OpenAI reaffirmed its promise to pay the full cost of powering its data centers, "two days after voters at the polls roundly rejected the rapid expansion of AI," CNBC wrote.
What it might mean
Wednesday the market decided who loses from slower building: the builders. Thursday it decided the chipmakers lose too, because a data center that is never built never buys a chip. The giants that buy the chips held up better, as they did on Wednesday: Microsoft was down 2.4% and Alphabet 1.4%, and Apple was up 0.1%. Our guess: the chip sell-off runs until Nvidia's report on Nov. 17 says whether its customers are still ordering at the same pace.
What would kill it
AMD closing back above its Wednesday close of $488.78 before Nvidia reports on Nov. 17.
AMD and Micron vs. the S&P 500 (SPY), Sept. 1 = 100, through 10:30 am ET Thursday
Also moving
Astera LabsALAB−15.0%. The maker of connectivity chips for AI servers fell with its peers even after BMO started covering it at outperform, calling it the "leader in AI infrastructure," CNBC reported.
CiscoCSCO−4.8%. The network-equipment company was downgraded to equal weight at Morgan Stanley, which said the bar for more upside is "higher," CNBC reported.
ChevronCVX+1.9%. The oil company rose as U.S. crude reversed part of Wednesday's 8.3% fall; Chevron and Johnson & Johnson were among the Dow's gainers, CNBC reported.
What we know. Its news this morning is a membership tie-up with Lyft: DashPass members get Lyft's $9.99-a-month plan at no extra cost. Its insiders' latest SEC filings are three Forms 4, filed Nov. 4; a holder filed an amended Schedule 13G the same day. The stock had risen 17.2% in the five sessions through Wednesday. Its peers are down far less: Instacart −2.4%, Lyft −3.4% and Uber −1.1%.
First hour vs. delivery and ride peers
Our guess: a crowded week's gains coming out on a day the market sold anything priced for growth. Giving away a $9.99 Lyft plan doesn't explain a drop this size; a stock that rose that fast in five sessions can give it back in one.
The Earnings Desk
198 reports since Wednesday's close, biggest first
AppLovinAPP+33.2%. The company that sells advertising software to mobile-app makers grew revenue 55% to $2.18 billion and net income 72% to $1.44 billion, forecast $2.365 billion to $2.395 billion for this quarter, and added $3.2 billion to its buyback, its release shows. Revenue beat the $2.07 billion expected, CNBC reported. On a day the market sold AI's builders, it paid up for a company whose software earns money now.
QualcommQCOM−9.7%. The phone-chip company forecast adjusted earnings of $2.15 to $2.35 a share for this quarter, against the $2.27 expected, and its handset chip sales fell 26% to $5.14 billion as rising memory costs hurt phone demand, CNBC reported. "We don't have a demand issue; it's a supply issue," CEO Cristiano Amon said. The AI build-out is eating the memory chips that phones need, and Qualcomm pays the bill in lost phone sales.
Rejected a $1.4 billion offer of $7.35 a share in cash from a group led by Trian Fund Management, CNBC reported; the stock was above the offer.
More reports (12)
Stock
10:30 am
Motorola SolutionsMSI Police radios and 911 software
+9.8%
Rockwell AutomationROK Factory automation
−9.2%
Cardinal HealthCAH Drug distributor
+6.1%
CorpayCPAY Business payments
+10.7%
Iron MountainIRM Records storage and data centers
−7.9%
AflacAFL Supplemental insurance
+4.2%
VeracyteVCYT Cancer diagnostic tests
−55.4%
ZoetisZTS Animal medicines
−5.2%
TapestryTPR Coach handbags
+7.5%
News CorpNWSA Wall Street Journal publisher
−10.9%
RemitlyRELY Money transfers
−21.5%
Steve MaddenSHOO Shoes and handbags
−17.4%
The Coffee Story
One for the second cup
Workers' share of output hits a record low
Output per hour of work rose at a 3.6% annual rate in the third quarter, and the share of output paid to workers fell to a record low, in data back to 1947.
Productivity, the output of an hour of work, rose at a 3.6% annual rate in the third quarter, well ahead of the 2.9% economists expected, and unit labor costs, what businesses pay their workers for each unit of output, fell 0.7%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday, CNBC reported. The share of output that went to workers as pay slipped to 53%, the lowest in a series that goes back to 1947.
Companies are getting more out of each hour of work and paying less in labor for each unit of output. That is good news for profits and for inflation at the same time. It is also the kind of number that wins elections for the side promising to share it out differently.
Workers' share of business output, index (2017 = 100), 1947 to 2026
Source: FRED (Nonfarm Business Sector: Labor Share for All Workers). This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (terms).
Connecting the Dots
Where we are, and where the puck goes next
The vote is priced into AI's builders; now it is reaching the chips.
Last night we said voters picked cheaper oil and slower data centers, and the average stock cashed in. This morning the average stock is still cashing in, but the chips are paying for it, and the Fed signal we cut last night is back.
What came in
Since Wednesday's close
The number
What it does
Jobs Jobless claims, week to Oct. 31
189,000 new claims, against 197,000 expected, tied for the lowest since July, CNBC reported.
Almost nobody is being laid off. That keeps the Fed hiking.
Productivity BLS, third quarter
Up 3.6% against 2.9% expected; unit labor costs down 0.7%; labor share 53%, the lowest on record (since 1947), CNBC reported.
Strong output without wage pressure: good for profits, less so for workers.
The Fed
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin: "Unemployment's near record lows, and inflation is too high. That means the path is pretty straightforward." Markets price a better than 80% chance of a December hike, CNBC reported.
A Fed official all but saying it out loud.
Oil
U.S. crude up 2.6% to $90.37 by 10:21 am ET, after Wednesday's 8.3% fall.
The peace trade gave a little back.
Fear
The VIX at 23.47 by 10:30 am ET, up from 16.61 at Wednesday's close.
One calm day, then the bill for AI.
The rotation is the story, and it is now big enough to drag the index. The equal-weight S&P 500 was down 1.0% by 10:30 while the S&P 500 was down 2.3%: the average stock beat the giants by more than a point, on a bad morning. Over November so far, the equal-weight fund is up 1.3% and SPY down 0.9%. When the money leaves the chips, it doesn't leave the market; it goes to utilities, drugmakers and grocers.
The Fed side swung back. Last night we cut the December hike to two bars because oil fell under $90. This morning oil is back above $90, layoffs are near their lowest since 1969, and a Fed president says the path is "pretty straightforward." We put the bar back. Friday's jobs report still decides it.
The signals
Bars are our conviction: the chance it happens by the date shown.
Strong
The average stock keeps beating the giants
Through Nov. 30 · unchanged
This morning the equal-weight S&P 500 was down 1.0% and the S&P 500 2.3%. In November so far the equal-weight fund is up 1.3% and SPY down 0.9%.
Watch: the equal-weight S&P 500 against the ordinary one over November.
Clear
The Fed raises rates on Dec. 9
Through Dec. 9 · up from 2 last night
Jobless claims fell to 189,000, oil is back above $90, and Richmond Fed President Barkin called the path "pretty straightforward." Markets price a better than 80% chance of a December hike, CNBC reported. Friday's jobs report decides the next bar.
Watch: Friday's jobs report and oil.
Strong
The AI build-out starts paying with debt and shares
Through Dec. 31 · unchanged
Barkin said the debt issuance to hyperscalers, estimated at better than $500 billion this year, is "worth watching" for potential credit issues, CNBC reported. Where Meta's new bonds price against its April ones still decides a fifth bar.
Watch: where Meta's new bonds price against its April ones.
Clear
AI's power suppliers trail the market
Through Dec. 31 · unchanged
Vistra was down 5.1%, Constellation 4.9%, GE Vernova 7.3% and Vertiv 13.3% this morning, against the S&P 500's 2.3%. One more morning in the same direction; the race runs to Dec. 31.
Watch: an equal mix of Vistra, Constellation, GE Vernova and Vertiv against the S&P 500, from the Nov. 4 10:30 am prices to Dec. 31.
Where the puck goes next: our odds through November
The rotation keeps going45%
Unchanged at 45% from last night
The money leaving the chips went to utilities, drugmakers and grocers, not out of the market. Winners: staples, utilities, the equal-weight S&P 500. Losers: the chips and the AI builders that have to borrow.
The tell: the equal-weight S&P 500 beats the ordinary one over November.
Everything gets marked down25%
Up from 20% last night
The VIX jumped and the Nasdaq gave back more than Wednesday's gain. If the selling spreads from the chips to the rest, this is how it starts. Winners: the dollar, short-term Treasuries. Losers: small caps first, then everything priced on distant profits.
The tell: the Russell 2000 closing under 2,716, more than 5% below its Oct. 29 close.
AI wins back the crowd30%
Down from 35% last night
Two days of selling across AI's supply chain. It now needs Nvidia on Nov. 17 to show its customers are still buying. Winners: the hyperscalers and chips. Losers: the defensive names leading this week.
The tell: Alphabet closing above $324.89 by Nov. 30.
Noise of the dayThe word "correction." A 10% fall from a record is a round number, not a signal. What matters is where the money went, and this morning it went to the rest of the market.
What would make us tear this up:a weak jobs report on Friday that takes the December hike off the table while oil goes back above $104. That mix, a slowing economy with expensive energy, fits none of our three. We'll keep score at the end of November.
Later Today
What's still coming
When (ET / PT)
What
Why it matters
Today, 4:00 pm / 1:00 pm
The close
Whether the chip sell-off deepens or the staples rally fades.
Today, after the bell
Airbnb and Lyft
Travel and rides, on the day DoorDash tied its membership to Lyft.
Fri, 8:30 am / 5:30 am
The jobs report
October's payrolls; economists expect 59,000, CNBC reported. The decider for Dec. 9.
Tonight Airbnb and Lyft report after the bell. See you at the close.
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