First Signal

Friday refused to extend the rout. The economy added 165,000 jobs in October, nearly triple the 59,000 economists expected, and the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said at 8:30. By 11:07 am Eastern the S&P 500 was up 0.9% at 7,416.07, taking back about a fifth of Thursday's 4.4% fall, its worst day since April, and the Nasdaq rose 1.5% after its 5.5% rout. The chips that led the fall led the bounce: AMD 9.0%, Lam Research 8.7%, Nvidia 3.7%. The VIX fell 12.3% to 24.71, the 10-year yield edged to 4.85% and gold slipped to $4,064.50. Our read: Thursday's rout was about politics; Friday's bounce is about arithmetic. An economy hiring 165,000 workers in a month isn't the slowdown the sellers spent the week pricing in — and it hands the Fed every excuse to hike on Dec. 9.

Inside Lam's $25 billion check for the rout · 165,000 jobs against a guess of 59,000 · Airbnb soars, Axon sinks

Also moving

• IREN IREN +19.6%. The AI data-center landlord bounced hardest of its group after quarterly revenue grew to $228 million from $137 million, even as it pushed more than $4 billion of expected 2026 recurring revenue into 2027, CNBC reported. It had fallen 31% in the week through Thursday.
• Cloudflare NET +12.0%. The network company forecast this quarter's revenue of $845 million to $846 million, above the $796 million expected, CNBC reported.
• DraftKings DKNG −28.3%. The betting site lost 94 cents a share last quarter, worse than the 39-cent loss expected, on revenue of $1.33 billion against $1.40 billion expected, CNBC reported.
• Atlassian TEAM −15.4%. The maker of Jira said it expects data-center revenue growth to decline about 14% this quarter, CNBC reported.

Airbnb ABNB +9.7%. The rental marketplace earned $3.16 a share on revenue of $4.87 billion, up 19%, against the $2.85 and $4.75 billion expected; gross bookings rose 21% to $27.7 billion and net income hit $1.9 billion, a 39% margin, its shareholder letter shows. It raised its full-year growth target to "the high teens," guided this quarter to $3.22 billion to $3.28 billion, and put a fresh $12 billion into buybacks. In a week that punished the spenders, the market paid a premium for a company that collects cash: Airbnb keeps 29 cents of free cash flow from every revenue dollar.

Axon Enterprise AXON −16.8%. The Taser and police-body-camera maker grew revenue 28% to $909 million and swung to a $57 million profit, but revenue and earnings missed estimates, CNBC reported, and the company cut its full-year forecast to $3.61 billion to $3.63 billion of revenue, from growth of 32% to 34%, blaming roughly $130 million of federal anti-drone orders that slipped out of the year. Free cash flow guidance fell to $350 million to $400 million, from about $450 million, and it put another $1.2 billion into drone maker Skydio, raising its stake to 37%. The growth story is intact — annual recurring revenue rose 40% — but this week has no patience for companies that spend big while promising less. Axon did both before sunrise.

Moderna MRNA +6.7%. The vaccine maker returned to a quarterly profit — $162 million against a $200 million loss a year ago — grew revenue 29% to $1.3 billion, and raised its 2026 revenue outlook to growth of 15% to 25%, from "up to 10%," its report shows. Its melanoma vaccine with Merck cut recurrence risk 42% in a late-stage trial.

We flagged this on Tuesday morning, when Moderna rose 5.5% with no news and we guessed money was betting on the election. The vote has come and gone; this rise came with the quarter attached.

The robots' favorite sector is hiring again

Manufacturing — the industry the automation story was supposed to finish — has now added jobs for five straight months, its first streak of five in at least two years.

Factories added 19,000 jobs in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday, after 13,000 in September, 21,000 in August, 20,000 in July and 13,000 in June. In 2025 manufacturing shed jobs every single month. The rest of October's 165,000 came from the old economy too: professional services added 70,000 and transportation and warehousing 25,000.

The market spent the week pricing an economy where AI needs fewer people and fewer buildings. The jobs report priced the opposite: more drivers, more consultants, more factory hands. One of these two is priced on a forecast. The other is a headcount.

The jobs blowout settles the Fed question; the AI question waits for Nvidia.

Last night we said the selling had spread beyond AI and set two tests for this morning: the jobs report and the price of oil. Jobs came in at nearly triple the guess. The December hike we cut to two bars is back to four, and the week now comes down to one afternoon.

What came in

This morning answered one of the week's two questions. The selling was never about earnings — the companies reporting money in the door are up, and the ones revising promises down are down, a pattern too tidy to be panic. It was about who pays for the AI build-out once Washington slows it, and whether the real economy was cracking underneath. Friday said the real economy is fine. The average stock didn't join the bounce — the equal-weight S&P 500 was down 0.1% at 11:07 while the S&P 500 rose 0.9% — which says this was relief in exactly the names that sold off, not a new all-clear.

So the week ends as an argument, not a verdict. The hike is back on the table at 76.8%, and hot jobs plus expensive oil is precisely the mix that could push the Fed to take it and push stocks back down. The chips' bounce needs Nvidia's report on Nov. 17 to mean anything. Until then, Friday morning is a remission, and remissions end.

The signals

Bars are our conviction: the chance it happens by the date shown.

Where the puck goes next: our odds through November

Noise of the day "The rout is over." One green morning after the chips' worst day in five years proves only that sellers nap. The bounce that matters holds into next week.

What would make us tear this up: a hot CPI on Tuesday that locks the December hike in just as the market remembers it can fall. That mix, tighter money into a fragile tape, fits none of our three. We'll keep score at the end of November.

Tonight One afternoon left to learn whether Thursday was a flush or a turn. See you at the close.