No. 008Thursday, November 5, 2026Thu, Nov 5, 2026Close edition
We give you the facts, the moves, and, of course, The facts, the moves, and what we make of it all.
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S&P 5007,353.73−4.36%
Nasdaq24,315.00−5.52%
Dow51,523.06−3.44%
Russell 20002,729.89−4.45%
VIX28.18+69.7%
10-yr4.84%−5.3 bp
WTI$90.52+2.7%
Dollar101.61+0.04%
Gold$4,113.50+1.0%
The Close
Today in one paragraph
The S&P 500 fell 4.36% to 7,353.73, the Nasdaq 5.52% and the Dow 1,833.06 points, or 3.44%, all three their worst day since April 2025, CNBC reported. The selling started in the chips: the chip fund SMH fell 11.2%, its worst day since March 2020 in our books, with AMD down 17.3% and Micron 17.5%. Then it spread to Caterpillar, down 6.4%, and JPMorgan, down 4.2%. The equal-weight S&P 500 fund fell 2.9%, less than the index. Sen. Bernie Sanders called for a "national data center moratorium." The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.84% by 4:31 p.m. Eastern, and the VIX closed at 28.18. Our read: Wednesday the market sold the builders and kept the rest. Thursday it stopped choosing.
A gold miner and a utility rose; nearly everything else fell, and the chips fell most. Thursday's moves from Wednesday's close, from our price books, the day's index closes and the equal-weight fund's closing quote.
What Happened Today?
The most important stories, through our eyes
The chips' worst day since 2020
The chip fund SMH falls 11.2%, its worst day since March 2020, as Sen. Sanders calls for a national data-center moratorium.
AMD AMD $404.40 −17.3%Micron MU $656.39 −17.5%Nvidia NVDA $181.60 −9.3%
What the market heard
"National data center moratorium now," Sen. Bernie Sanders, who caucuses with the Democrats, wrote on X. "Americans don't want Big Tech oligarchs wrecking the environment, gutting jobs and threatening humanity's future." Rep. Yassamin Ansari of Arizona wrote that pausing AI development should be a Day 1 priority for the House's new Democratic majority, and Rep. Greg Casar of Texas, who chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus, answered "Yes!", CNBC reported.
The chips took it hardest. The chip fund SMH fell 11.2%, its worst day since March 16, 2020, in our books. Sandisk fell 22.3%, Astera Labs 19.6%, the memory maker Micron 17.5%, AMD 17.3%, Broadcom 10.4% and Nvidia 9.3%. "Right now, investors are questioning that $1.2 trillion of capex that we forecast for next year," said Peter Boockvar of One Point BFG Wealth Partners, CNBC reported. Nvidia had its own Washington problem: three House Republican committee chairs asked CEO Jensen Huang for a closed-door briefing on Nov. 18 about his relationship with an executive reportedly identified as a Chinese intelligence asset. Nvidia said its regional cloud customers receive "ordinary business information," CNBC reported.
What it might mean
A national moratorium is one senator's post, not a bill, and a president of the other party can veto one. But the market isn't pricing a law; it is pricing the end of certainty. Chips were valued on years of orders from data centers that now need local permission to exist. Our guess: the chips find a floor only when the companies that buy them say, in their own reports, that orders are holding. Nvidia's report on Nov. 17 is the next big test.
What would kill it
SMH closing back above $504.27, Wednesday's close, before Nvidia reports on Nov. 17.
The chip fund SMH vs. the S&P 500 (SPY), Sept. 1 = 100, through Thursday's close
The giants that already have the capacity
Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon fall 2.2% to 3.6% while the S&P 500 falls 4.4%, and an investor explains why: "existing capacity becomes more valuable."
Microsoft MSFT $535.93 −3.6%Alphabet GOOGL $282.57 −2.2%Amazon AMZN $260.21 −2.2%
What the market heard
Three of the biggest cloud companies fell less than the market: Amazon 2.2%, Alphabet 2.2% and Microsoft 3.6%, against 4.4% for the S&P 500 fund SPY. "Nobody voted to make compute less scarce," said Rob Sechan of Newedge Capital Group, pointing to Microsoft's Azure cloud business, whose revenue increased 48% in the quarter to Sept. 30. "When new capacity gets harder to build, existing capacity becomes more valuable," CNBC reported.
The dollars still added up. Heading into the last hour, the Magnificent Seven were down close to $900 billion in market value from Wednesday's close, CNBC tallied, and Nvidia alone about $374 billion of it, CNBC reported. Tesla fell 10.8% and SpaceX 9.0%, a second day of losses for both after the Democrats' wins in Texas, CNBC reported.
What it might mean
The market is splitting AI by who already owns the scarce thing. Permits and power are now the bottleneck, and the giants have both. That makes them the best house on a bad street: they still fell. Our guess: the hyperscalers keep beating the chipmakers through November, whichever way the index goes.
What would kill it
SMH beating an equal mix of Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon from Thursday's close to Nov. 30.
Market value lost by the Magnificent Seven, heading into Thursday's last hour
Values lost from Wednesday's close, as tallied by CNBC heading into the final hour; closing moves from our price books.
Also moving
CaterpillarCAT−6.4%. The maker of construction and mining machines fell as "the sell-off in tech, the size of it, is now feeding itself into the broader market," Truist Wealth's Keith Lerner said, CNBC reported.
Dollar TreeDLTR−6.2%. The discount retailer was downgraded to hold at Loop Capital, which said its "bullish fundamental outlook" is "largely priced in" after a rally of more than 20% since early October, CNBC reported.
NewmontNEM+1.4%. The gold miner rose with gold, whose futures settled 1.0% higher at $4,113.50. Gold miners joined the rally and silver headed for its best week since August, CNBC reported.
No cards tonight: on a day like this, the market itself was the explanation.
The Earnings Desk
Results, briefly
TripadvisorTRIP−27.6%. The travel-review site said CEO Matt Goldberg and finance chief Michael Noonan will both leave, with Goldberg staying as CEO through Feb. 16, and forecast a fourth-quarter revenue decline from the third quarter in the low teens, CNBC reported. Two exits and a shrinking quarter in one release is a company starting over.
EPAMEPAM+20.6%. The software company raised its full-year forecast to $13.23 to $13.31 a share of adjusted profit, from $13.08 to $13.24, and added $1.5 billion to its buyback, CNBC reported. On the worst day since April 2025, a raised forecast and a bigger buyback still got paid.
Veterans DayStocks trade; the bond market is closed (SIFMA)
ThuNov 12
Existing home sales10 a.m. ET. October's sales of previously owned homes (NAR)
"Last report" is the stock's move the session after its previous results.
The Nightcap
One before you call it a day
The day small investors stopped buying the dip in single stocks
Small investors are known for buying the dip. Not on Thursday. Retail traders sold a net $338 million of individual stocks, in a tally taken before the close, the biggest one-day outflow since March 2020, Vanda Research said, CNBC reported. "On a typical sell-off, retail buy the dip," Vanda wrote. "Today, that bid has effectively disappeared from individual names." What buying there was was concentrated in leveraged funds, such as ones that triple the daily move of the Nasdaq-100 and of chip stocks. The crowd didn't leave; it swapped shares for leveraged funds. That is a bet on a quick bounce, not the patient buying that ends a sell-off.
Connecting the Dots
Where we are, and where the puck goes next
The AI sell-off stopped being a rotation and started taking everything with it.
This morning's line was that the money leaving the chips wasn't leaving the market; it went to utilities, drugmakers and grocers. By the afternoon that was no longer true. The Dow fell 1,833 points and our "everything gets marked down" scenario moved up to 35%.
The average stock still beat the giants: the equal-weight fund fell 2.9% and SPY 4.4%, and in November the equal-weight fund is down 0.7% against SPY's 3.0%. But "beating" now means losing less. Our signal is about the gap, and the gap is widening, so it keeps its four bars. Our odds are about the level, and the level just fell 4.4%.
The bond market moved the other way from stocks: the 10-year yield fell to 4.84% and the 2-year to 4.46% by 4:31 p.m. Eastern. Bonds rallying on a day like this is a bet that the Fed will be gentler, not harder, so our December hike loses the bar it won this morning. Friday's jobs report now decides two things at once: whether the Fed hikes, and whether this sell-off finds a floor.
The signals
Bars are our conviction: the chance it happens by the date shown.
Strong
The average stock keeps beating the giants
Through Nov. 30 · unchanged
The equal-weight S&P 500 fund fell 2.89% and SPY 4.41%. In November the equal-weight fund is down 0.7% and SPY 3.0%: the gap is growing, even as both fall.
Watch: the equal-weight S&P 500 against the ordinary one over November.
Picking up
The Fed raises rates on Dec. 9
Through Dec. 9 · down from 3 this morning
The 2-year yield fell to 4.46% by 4:31 p.m. Eastern as stocks sold off: the bond market is betting on a gentler Fed. A strong jobs report on Friday would put the bar back.
Watch: Friday's jobs report and oil.
Strong
The AI build-out starts paying with debt and shares
Through Dec. 31 · unchanged
Investors are "questioning that $1.2 trillion of capex" forecast for next year, Peter Boockvar told CNBC. Harder building makes the money harder to raise. Where Meta's new bonds price against its April ones still decides a fifth bar.
Watch: where Meta's new bonds price against its April ones.
Strong
AI's power suppliers trail the market
Through Dec. 31 · up from 3 this morning
From the Nov. 4 10:30 am prices, the four are down 7.2% on average, against 4.3% for the S&P 500, with Vertiv down 16.3%. Two days in, the gap is open.
Watch: an equal mix of Vistra, Constellation, GE Vernova and Vertiv against the S&P 500, from the Nov. 4 10:30 am prices to Dec. 31.
Where the puck goes next: our odds through November
The rotation keeps going40%
Down from 45% this morning
The average stock still beat the giants, but by losing less. A rotation needs somewhere to rotate to. Winners: staples, utilities, the equal-weight S&P 500. Losers: the chips and the AI builders that have to borrow.
The tell: the equal-weight S&P 500 beats the ordinary one over November.
Everything gets marked down35%
Up from 25% this morning
The selling spread from the chips to Caterpillar and JPMorgan, the VIX closed at 28.18, and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,729.89, within 1% of our tell. Winners: Treasuries, gold. Losers: small caps first, then everything priced on distant profits.
The tell: the Russell 2000 closing under 2,716, more than 5% below its Oct. 29 close.
AI wins back the crowd25%
Down from 30% this morning
The chips had their worst day since 2020, and the crowd that usually buys these dips sold. It needs Nvidia on Nov. 17. Winners: the hyperscalers and chips. Losers: the defensive names.
The tell: Alphabet closing above $324.89 by Nov. 30.
What would make us tear this up:a weak jobs report on Friday that takes the December hike off the table while oil goes back above $104. That mix, a slowing economy with expensive energy, fits none of our three. We'll keep score at the end of November.
Tomorrow October's jobs report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the first test of whether Thursday's sell-off finds a floor. See you at the open.
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